Be careful what you wish for

Anyone inclined to believe the Seahawks should move on from quarterback Geno Smith will point to the second-quarter interception as proof of his limitations.

As prolific and efficient as Smith has been in his three seasons as the Seahawks starter, he has a tendency to get picked off at the most inopportune times. When his third-down pass was picked off with 3:07 left in the first half, it prevented Seattle from kicking a field goal that would have cut the Packers lead to 11 points.

It was the fourth time this season that Smith has been picked off when the Seahawks had the ball inside the opponent’s 20-yard line, the sixth time it has happened over the past two seasons.

It’s what happened after Smith left the game, though, that should provide a jolt of reality to those who believe it will take a new quarterback to put the Seahawks over the hump.

The Seahawkd didn’t just struggle after Smith suffered a knee injury midway through the third quarter. They were completely and almost comically non-functional with Sam Howell at quarterback.

A scientist would refer to this as a control sample. I found it to be an enlightening frame of reference, and of all the things that happened on Sunday night at Lumen Field — and there were a lot — it fully demonstrated both the difficulty and the danger of the decision Seattle faces at quarterback.

But before I dive into that, let’s get a little housekeeping out of the way.

1. The Packers came into Seattle’s house and punked the Seahawks.

   At least they did in that first half. The Packers opted to receive the opening kickoff and spent much of the first half leaving footprints all over Seattle’s rejuvenated defense.

   Seattle’s defense did play better in the second half, which speaks to both its resolve and ability to adjust, but this game demonstrated that there is still a gap between the Seahawks and the top teams in the NFC.

2. The Seahawks playoff chances narrowed considerably.

   The short version: Seattle must win its final three games to be assured of a playoff spot. The long version is available here.

The chances of making the playoffs will be further compromised by Smith’s health. Smith suffered an injury midway through the third quarter. The Seahawks had the ball at Green Bay 24. Seattle was trailing 20-3 and had gained a total of 156 yards and 11 first downs on its six possessions.

The Seahawks had seven more possessions after Smith left the game. Those drives gained a total of 44 yards and three first downs.

Even that doesn’t spell out just how bad Seattle’s became.

Howell dropped back 19 times. He was sacked on four of those drop backs, losing a total of 21 yards. Of the 14 dropbacks where he was able to throw a pass, he recorded five completions for a total of 24 yards.

Put more simply, once Howell came into the game, the Seahawks called 19 pass plays which gained a combined total of 3 yards. As ESPN’s Ben Solak pointed out, there have been only 20 times over the past 25 seasons that a quarterback has had as many dropbacks as Howell did while completing five passes or fewer.

Their only score with Howell at the helm came on a 24-yard run by Zach Charbonnet, which came five plays after a fumble recovery by Seattle’s defense.

Now there are two ways to look at this:

1. This performance is a reflection of Howell.

   He did throw a league-high 21 interceptions last season with Washington, and the fact that he’s not a better option than Smith doesn’t mean Seattle should stick with Smith.

2. Howell’s performance reflects the deficiencies of Seattle’s offense.

   Howell’s issues in Washington related to the chances he took. He was a funcitonal quarterback, at times even a dangerous one, and the fact he looked like a deer in headlights against the Packers gives you an idea of just how much pressure a quarterback faces behind Seattle’s offensive line.

Now you see the challenge that Seattle is facing. Smith has made some back-breaking mistakes in his three seasons as the starter. He hasn’t been able to make the Seahawks into anything better than a marginal playoff team in that time, either.

However, while the quarterback is the most important player on the field, his performance is impacted significantly by a number of things, the foremost being how much time he has to throw.

From that perspective, the final 20 minutes of Sunday’s game provided a hell of a frame of reference. Things got significantly worse once he left the game, which is something that should scare the hell out of everyone who believes that Smith is the one who’s holding this team back.