The Seahawks can close a case

During Sunday’s telecast, the FOX broadcast crew stated that the Seahawks had outscored their opponents by 37 points in the final 2 minutes of halves this season.

It was, the broadcast crew said, the best margin in the league.

Now this caught my attention for two reasons:

1. For nearly a decade now, I’ve been specifically interested in the way football teams manage the end of halves. I even bought the book that is considered the bible on the subject: The Complete Handbook of Clock Management. It was written by Homer Smith and my version (unfortunately) has disgraced coach Art Briles on the cover.

2. Seattle holding such an incredible edge would be an awfully big feather in the cap of not just quarterback Geno Smith, but also the Seahawks coaching staff.

So I looked into the stat and discovered the statistic FOX cited was incorrect. The Seahawks have actually outscored their opponents by 39 points in the final 2 minutes of halves, and I’m going to put a microscope over that figure when we go deep today.

I have made a very deliberate effort to restrain myself when it comes to paying attention to the recruiting of high-school players by college football teams. I am going to need to do the same when it comes to transfers, which is what I discussed in my latest column for The News Tribune.

The New Yorker does not often publish stories about sports, but when they do, I’m always interested. This story explains how the body-bag game functions within the landscape of college football. (Hint: It’s all about the cash.)

I’m going to blame Pat McAfee for this one.

I’m sure the folks at Netflix looked at all the attention his weekly interview with Aaron Rodgers generated and decided that America really wanted to hear more from the quarterback who fashions himself to be quite an independent thinker.

The result is “Enigma,” a three-part series that debuts on Dec. 17 at which point the Jets will almost certainly be nuked out of any postseason consideration. The trailer starts with Rodgers’ monotoned declaration that, “I live between two worlds of the extroverted and an introverted lover of silence.”

It gets funnier. There are clips taken from conversations with doctors and his rehabilitation from the torn Achilles he suffered. There’s also discussion of his “spiritual journey” and footage from what appear to be his participation in tribal rituals. At one point, RFK Jr. is shown asking Rodgers, “Did you ever think of getting into politics?”

Rodgers is presented as a divisive, polarizing figure, but I actually don’t think that’s true. I think most people are in agreement about who he is: One of the best quarterbacks of his generation, who suffered a truly unfortunate injury last year and is now way more interested in his own personal identity and image than the success of his team. From the looks of it, he is a man who truly relishes the smell of his own farts.

I suppose it’s possible that I will watch. I’m not so busy that I can’t afford to take an hour to laugh at what a self-important dork he is. But I’m not at all curious about him at this point, and I think that I would prefer to sit alone in silence rather than listen to this cut-rate Carlos Castaneda.

Three weeks ago in San Francisco … errrrr … Santa Clara, the Seahawks got the ball back with 2:38 left in the game, trailing the 49ers by four.

Geno Smith scored a touchdown with 12 seconds remaining, and Seattle won 20-17 to end a skid in which Seattle had lost five of six.

Last week in New York … errrr … New Jersey, the Jets got the ball with 5:31 remaining, trailing the Seahawks by five. This time, it was the Seahawks defense that closed things out, forcing a turnover on downs at the Seattle 34 with 38 seconds left.

Those two results very well may turn out to be the difference in Seattle’s season. They also show the one thing that has been the Seahawks biggest and perhaps most surprising strength this season: This team has shown a knack for closing out halves with authority.

Now if you’ll indulge me in just a little math, I’ll show you exactly what I mean.

In the final 2 minutes of halves, the Seahawks have outscored their opponents by a combined margin of 65-26.

That is a fairly remarkable number for a couple of reasons.

1. The margin

   The Seahawks have been outscored by their opponents 233-204 in the first 28 minutes of each half this season. They have been outscored 6-3 in overtime. The fact that the Seahawks are 7-5 instead of 5-7 or worse is due to how good they’ve been in those final 2 minutes of each half.

2. The volume

   In NFL games, there is more scoring toward the end of halves than other stretches in the game. There are a variety of reasons for this demonstrable fact from the desperation of teams who find themselves behind to the hard stop that occurs at the end of the second and fourth quarters to the declining importance of field position as the clock ticks down. The less time remaining, the less you have to worry about where your opponent might take over the ball.

   Seattle’s season provides a chance to put some numbers to this.

   The Seahawks have scored 89 points in the first 28 minutes of first halves this season and 36 points in the final 2 minutes of the second quarter. This is what a statistician would call disproportionate because 36 points represents 28.8 percent of the team’s first-half scoring total and the final 2 minutes of the second quarter represents 6.7 percent of the minutes Seattle has played in the first half.

   This can also be expressed as a rate. The Seahawks score an average of .26 points per minute in the first 28 minutes of the first half and 1.5 points per minute in the final 2 minutes.

   This uptick is not unique to Seattle. Like I said, it holds true for most teams, including Seattle’s opponents. The Seahawks have allowed 118 points in the first 28 minutes of the first half this season (.32 points per minute) and just 13 in the final 2 minutes (0.54 per minute). You’ll notice that while Seattle’s opponents score more, the uptick isn’t nearly as significant.

I’ve broken down Seattle’s scoring through 12 games this season to isolate what is happening at the end of halves.

Now one thing to keep in mind is that these trends are actually related to one another. Having a really good end-of-half offense actually helps the end-of-half defense and vice versa. This is because of the unique nature of these situations.

Having a really good end-of-half offense will give a team the ability to minimize and potentially deny additional possessions for the opponent. Similarly, having a really good end-of-half defense will provide a team with more scoring opponents by getting the ball back, which should result in more points.

Now, I’ve still got a lot of questions about all of this, the foremost of which is how sustainable it is. It’s possible that Seattle has been the beneficiary of good fortune on one side or the other, and the scoring advantage that the Seahawks have held at the end of halves through the first 12 games will decline or potentially reverse itself over the final five games.

Or perhaps what Seattle does in the final 2 minutes of a half is a demonstrable skill, and if that’s the case, it’s one of the most impactful strengths that a football team can have.