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What happens now with D.K. Metcalf?
A primer on what I expect to happen with Seattle's wide receiver, and why.
Danny ONeil
March 06, 2025
Well that escalated quickly.
OK. Maybe not that quickly. It’s been pretty clear for some time that there was potential uncertainty around D.K. Metcalf’s future with the Seattle Seahawks.
The uncertainty is now out there for everyone to see: Metcalf requested a trade.
✏️ A three-sentence summary of the situation ✏️
D.K. Metcalf isn’t interested in anything the Seahawks have offered him. Not a contract extension, not even playing out the final year of a contract that will pay him a salary of $18 million. He wants to be elsewhere.
❓️ Will the Seahawks grant his request ❓️
Probably. I have calculated that there is a 66.2 percent he will be dealt at some point between now and the conclusion of the NFL draft. I’ll explain how I came to that very precise measurement. But first, a couple of links to podcast appearances.
🤷♂️ How’d I get 66.2% probability? 🤷♂️
It was the number that popped into my head. I do think it’s more likely he’ll be traded than not, an opinion drawn from this series of facts:
Metcalf’s current deal is unwieldy with a 2025 salary-cap cost of almost $32 million or 11 percent of the team’s total salary cap.
The cap cost would be dramatically downsized were Seattle to sign Metcalf to an extension.
The fact Metcalf asked for a trade means that either the Seahawks aren’t offering an extension or — more likely — the extension Seattle offered is considered a non-starter by Metcalf.
🪶 Seattle’s options 🪶
The Seahawks can choose to wait out Metcalf, sitting through a potential cold war of skipped workouts and missed practices so they can spend 11% of their salary cap on a receiver who is free to leave after next season …
OR
The Seahawks can get what they can from a player who has been among the more consistent deep threats in the league over the past six years.
❌ The variables ❌
Is there a team willing to meet Metcalf’s asking price on a long-term extension AND provide significant draft-pick compensation to do so?
Is John Schneider willing to accept less than a first-round pick in exchange for Metcalf?
🟰 The comparables 🟰
We’ve seen a number of top-shelf wide receivers traded over the previous four years, but none are necessarily good comparisons. (Note: I’m not including the Raiders trade for Davante Adams nor the Dolphins trade for Tyreek Hill because I think both of those players had significantly higher value than Metcalf.)
Bills got: Stefon Diggs and 2020 7th-round choice.
Vikings got: 2020 1st-round choice (No. 22 overall), 2020 5th-round pick, 2020 6th-round pick and 2021 4th-round pick.
Why it doesn’t fit: The Bills did not sign Diggs to a new contract upon acquiring him. He played two seasons under his existing deal before agreeing to an extension with the Bills.
What Philadelphia got: Brown
What Tennessee got: 2022 1st-round pick (No. 18 overall) and ‘22 3rd-round pick (No. 101 overall).
What Brown got: A four-year, $100 million contract extension
Why it doesn’t fit: Brown was younger, having played only three seasons. He was coming off his rookie contract.
Texans got: Stefon Diggs, 2024 6th-round pick, 2025 5th-round pick.
Bills got: 2024 2nd-round pick.
Why it doesn’t fit: Diggs was much more sideways in Buffalo than Metcalf currently is with Seattle. Houston didn’t acquire Diggs and sign him to an extension. Rather, they shortened his deal so he would become a free agent after the season.
Commanders got: Samuel.
Niners got: 5th-round pick.
Why it doesn’t fit: Three years ago, Samuel was a natural comparison to Metcalf. Both were drafted in 2019. Each signed extensions in 2022. However, Samuel is coming off his least productive season in the NFL and judging from the recent reports from the Bay Area, sure sounds like the Niners felt he was too heavy.
🔮 Best guess on compensation 🔮
Second-round choice.
There’s already a report from Josina Anderson that one team is willing to offer a third-round choice for Metcalf. I don’t think Schneider settles for that.
Schneider is going to say any package has to start from a first-round pick and go up from there. I don’t think he’s going to get that.
🃏 Who’s the wild card here? 🃏
John Schneider. He’s typically held a fairly high opinion of veterans. It’s why he’s been willing to trade draft picks to acquire guys like Percy Harvin, Jimmy Graham and Jamal Adams. It’s why the Seahawks didn’t trade guys like Richard Sherman, Earl Thomas and Bobby Wagner a year before releasing them or watching them leave in free agency.
Should the Seahawks trade D.K. Metcalf?If you answer "Yes" please indicate the level of compensation yo would insist upon in the comment. |
“The Why Is Everything” | By Michael Silver, W.W. Norton, 2024
This is a great book if you want to understand the evolution of an offensive approach that is followed by somewhere between one-quarter and one-third of the teams in the NFL.
This is also a great book if you want some gossipy tidbits on the rivalries and friction that have risen within and between coaches like Kyle Shanahan, Sean McVay, Matt LaFleur and Mike McDaniel.
What is truly exceptional about Silver’s book is the number of direct quotes from these coaches talking about actual issues. You get a sense for them as actual people and you even get to see some of their flaws, which instead of spoiling my image of anyone, actually made me like them more.
Not since Nicolas Dawidoff’s “Collision Low-Crossers” have I read a book on the NFL which such a direct and accurate picture of how pro-football coaches actually are.
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